Federal regulators came out with their first proposed rules on how to oversee prediction markets on Wednesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has taken the lead as the federal regulator over the markets, will seek to develop a framework to determine if contracts are contrary to the public interest and illegal.
Those questions surround contracts that relate to terrorism, assassinations, war, gaming or illegal conduct under state and or federal law, based on the Commodity Exchange Act. The commission did not outright ban any type of event contract based on the category of the trade, like those related to sports or elections.
The proposed rule focuses heavily on how the commission will determine if a contract crosses too much into the realm of terrorism, war or assassinations, topics that domestically-regulated exchanges have avoided offering contracts on.
The CFTC rules left some grey area around gaming, which has been the source of much controversy on the question of sports-related event contracts, though it detailed some sports-related contracts that the commission will not allow.
In a release, the commission acknowledged the rules proposed on Wednesday were thin, and noted that further rulemaking regarding prediction markets may come in the future.
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/regulators-proposed-prediction-markets-rules-ban-trading-on-terrorism-assassinations.html